Vietnamese coffee exports set a new record with a turnover of $4.24 billion in 2023. As the new year begins, Robusta coffee prices continue to reach new highs. With this advantage, the coffee industry is even more poised to achieve its export target for 2024.
Ranking Highest Coffee Export Turnover in History
In the year-end export report of 2023, the General Department of Customs stated that Vietnam's coffee export turnover reached $4.24 billion, marking a 4.6% increase compared to 2022 and the highest level ever recorded. This also marks the second consecutive year that Vietnam's coffee export value has exceeded $4 billion.
Coffee exporters noted that over 38.2 thousand tons of coffee were exported in the first month of 2024, setting a record for the highest volume of coffee exports in nearly 13 years and bringing in the highest export turnover to date. One of the bright spots in the coffee market in 2024 is the breakthrough in prices. The average export price of coffee in the first month of 2024 reached $3,050 per ton, a 5.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 39.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Particularly, from February 2023 to present, coffee prices have continuously surged and are now double compared to a year ago.
Despite achieving a record turnover, Vietnam only exported 1.62 million tons of coffee last year (equivalent to 27.05 million bags), a decrease of 8.7% compared to the previous year. Therefore, this result is attributed to the high world Robusta coffee prices and high domestic coffee prices. Forecast for 2024, Vietnam's coffee industry will continue to benefit from high Robusta coffee prices, possibly even reaching new peaks due to concerns about supply shortages. Supply shortages, especially the scarcity of goods in Vietnam, are one of the leading factors driving price increases. Because in 2022, Vietnam exported a record amount of coffee while the harvest output decreased by 10-15% compared to the previous crop, resulting in low coffee available for export in 2023. Meanwhile, demand for Robusta coffee has surged amidst tightening consumer spending due to high interest rates and sluggish economy, further driving up prices.
Facing Quality and Supply Issues
Global demand for coffee is increasing while coffee production in many countries is sharply decreasing, pushing up export prices. However, this poses a challenge for Vietnam's coffee industry as the output for the 2023-2024 crop continues to decline.
In 2024, the supply situation in Vietnam is forecasted to remain unfavorable, impacting coffee prices both domestically and internationally. Vietnam's total coffee supply remains lower than the previous crop due to a significant decrease in inventory from 3.58 million bags in the 2021-2022 crop to only 390,000 bags in the 2022-2023 crop. Consequently, Vietnam's green coffee exports are projected to decrease by 2.4 million bags to 23 million bags. Ending stocks for the 2023-2024 crop are expected to remain low at 359,000 tons. Further analysis suggests that Vietnam's coffee output for the 2023-2024 crop is also decreasing by 10-15%. Exporting enterprises need to balance their orders to ensure contract fulfillment.
Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien emphasizes that to achieve the export target of $6 billion by 2030 and increase the value-added for Vietnamese coffee products, the coffee industry needs comprehensive attention and solutions. This includes boosting both the quantity and quality of coffee in growing regions and increasing the proportion of deep processing.
In particular, localities need to plan key coffee growing areas, promote replanting, and adopt sustainable coffee production processes certified by VietGAP, 4C, Rainforest, organic certifications, etc., to meet the stringent export standards of current markets. Additionally, enterprises need to be proactive, flexible, and thoroughly analyze each market for production direction. Alongside improving product quality, emphasis must also be placed on branding and brand management.
Great Export Opportunities for Vietnamese Coffee This Year
Assessing the global coffee supply and demand situation, international experts believe that the world will not face shortages or difficulties with Arabica supply but will encounter challenges with Robusta. Vietnam has been the world's leading producer and supplier of Robusta for many years. The world is accustomed to buying Vietnamese Robusta coffee, with coffee roasters worldwide adjusting their roasting formulas with a significant portion of Vietnamese Robusta.
Currently, the European Union (EU) is the largest importer of Vietnamese coffee, accounting for 29% of total export turnover. Following are the United States, China, Russia, and Indonesia. Consumer preferences for coffee in the EU are changing, and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) helps increase the value of Vietnam's coffee industry and continues to expand market share in the EU in the coming years. Besides the EU, another market, Japan, is also increasing its imports of Vietnamese coffee. According to the International Trade Center, in the first nine months of 2023, Japan reduced its coffee imports from the world by 14.1% compared to the same period in 2022, reaching $1.18 billion. However, Japan increased its coffee imports from Vietnam by 5.9%, reaching $204 million, with a market share of 17.22% in the first nine months of 2023.
To ensure sustainable exports, the coffee industry needs to continue restructuring, promote deep processing, and build strong brands for Vietnamese coffee in the global market.
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Luan, CEO of Meet More, one of the coffee exporting companies, stated: "In 2024, coffee is still considered a favorable and high-value export commodity. To seize this opportunity and ensure sustainable, large-scale exports, businesses need to focus on promoting deep processing as the profit value of processed coffee is higher." "The deep-processed coffee products of Meet More and some other brands are now accepted by the world market," Mr. Luan added.